The products and services which VorTek will provide are designed to be introduced on a city-by-city or region-by-region basis. In each case an SDT network of Moles connected to a Data Control Center must be installed before any products or services can be offered for sale. For these reasons, VorTek financial plans, including projections of sales, costs, and income are organized to a large degree on the basis of the performance of the individual networks. Detailed financial data are provided in the VorTek Financial Plan.
The principal products VorTek will offer for sale to the general public will be the homeowner tornado alarm receivers which are referred to as "Owls" and the annual subscriptions to receive the coded alarm signal. In addition, VorTek will sell the SDT data to one or more television stations in the area. In each tornado-prone city or region sale of these items will commence after the installation of the SDT network covering the region in question. The first three candidate sites for SDT networks are 1) Huntsville, Alabama; 2) Birmingham, Alabama; and 3) Atlanta, Georgia. During the first year of the two-year start-up period, the first SDT network will be installed in one of these cities. During the second year of the start-up period sale of SDT network data to TV stations in the first city as well as to FEMA will commence, along with the installation of networks in the remaining two cities. During the third year of business sale of SDT network data to television stations in the remaining two cities will commence. At the same time, with all three networks installed, sales of Owls and associated subscriptions will commence in all three cities. Installation of networks in 39 other tornado-prone cities will occur during the third, fourth, fifth, and sixth years, with the sale of Owls and subscriptions commencing after the completion of the network in each city.
The basic sales price of the Owls will be $55, with the annual subscription price set at $45. A fundamental feature in the sales strategy is to include the first year’s subscription fee as part of the purchase price of the Owl for a total cost of $100. Once a customer has purchased an Owl (with one year’s subscription) an annual renewal rate of approximately 80% can be expected.
The market size depends on the number of residences within the metropolitan area covered by the network. Detailed data concerning market size and sales projection for candidate network sites are found in the VorTek Financial Plan. For the candidate sites the metropolitan populations vary from 332,993 with 126,134 residences distributed over a land area of 1373 square miles, to 3,627,184 with 1,330,200 residences distributed over 6126 square miles. In all cities the sales goal for VorTek will be to achieve a market penetration rate of 10% of all residences during the first five years of operation within that city. Based on this 10% market penetration rate, consistent with the Financial Plan, for the average tornado-prone city the sales projection would be as shown in Table 2 and Figure 8. Based on this same market penetration rate schedule, consistent with the Financial Plan, for Huntsville, Birmingham, and Atlanta the sales projections would be as shown in Tables 3, 4, and 5, respectively and Figures 9, 10, and 11, respectively.
The economic advantages associated with installing networks in more populated tornado-prone regions must be balanced against the relative tornadic risk in such tornado-prone regions as compared to less-populated regions. In general, the greater the risk, the more receptive the local populace will be to purchasing Owls and maintaining annual subscriptions. Thus, the percent market penetration should be higher in regions with a higher risk. In some cases, due to recent tornadic activity, the perceived risk may be greater than the actual risk. As in the case of higher actual risks, the perception on the part of the local populace of a higher risk should result in higher rates of market penetration.
Table 2. Sales Projection for Average Tornado-Prone City (10% Market Penetration) Subscriptions Owl Sales 80% No. of Service TV Total Year No. Revenue Renew Sbscrb Revenue Revenue Revenue NSY+1 6,780 372,900 0 6,780 305,100 217,000 895,000 NSY+2 9,320 512,600 5,424 14,744 663,480 217,000 1,393,080 NSY+3 11,870 652,850 11,795 23,665 1,064,934 217,000 1,934,784 NSY+4 14,410 792,550 18,932 33,342 1,500,397 217,000 2,509,947 TOTAL 42,380 2,330,900 3,533,911 868,000 6,732,811
Figure 8
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Table 3. Sales Projection for Huntsville, Alabama (10% Market Penetration) Subscriptions Owl Sales 80% No. of Service TV Total Year No. Revenue Renew Sbscrb Revenue Revenue Revenue NSY+1 0 0 0 0 0 100,000 100,000 NSY+2 2,020 111,100 0 2,020 90,900 100,000 302,000 NSY+3 2,770 152,350 1,616 4,386 197,370 100,000 449,720 NSY+4 3,530 194,150 3,509 7,039 316,746 100,000 610,896 NSY+5 4,290 235,950 5,631 9,921 446,447 100,000 782,397 TOTAL 12,610 693,550 1,051,463 400,000 2,145,013
Figure 9
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Table 4. Sales Projection for Birmingham, Alabama (10% Market Penetration) Subscriptions Owl Sales 80% No. of Service TV Total Year No. Revenue Renew Sbscrb Revenue Revenue Revenue NSY+1 5,490 301,950 0 5,490 247,050 192,000 741,000 NSY+2 7,540 414,700 4,392 11,932 536,940 192,000 1,143,640 NSY+3 9,600 528,000 9,546 19,146 861,552 192,000 1,581,552 NSY+4 11,660 641,300 5,316 26,976 1,213,942 192,000 2,047,242 TOTAL 34,290 1,885,950 2,859,484 768,000 5,513,434
Figure 10
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Table 5. Sales Projection for Atlanta, Georgia (10% Market Penetration) Subscriptions Owl Sales 80% No. of Service TV Total Year No. Revenue Renew Sbscrb Revenue Revenue Revenue NSY+1 21,280 1,170,400 0 21,280 957,600 500,000 2,628,000 NSY+2 29,260 1,609,300 17,024 46,284 2,082,780 500,000 4,192,080 NSY+3 37,250 2,048,750 37,027 74,277 3,342,474 500,000 5,891,224 NSY+4 45,230 2,487,650 59,422 104,652 4,709,329 500,000 7,696,979 TOTAL 133,020 7,316,100 11,092,183 2,000,000 20,408,283
Figure 11
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All costs can be separated into three categories as follows:
1) network costs
2) Owl production and distribution costs
3) company (management and engineering) costs
In each tornado-prone regions, before any income can be generated, an SDT network must be installed. The cost of such a network will vary, depending upon the land area involved, but, consistent with the Financial Plan for the cities under consideration, the initial (start-up) cost will range from $66,515 to $250,595. These start-up costs include network site inspection, Mole fabrication, installation, calibration, and test, and Data Control Center fabrication, installation, and test. The annual (recurring ) cost to maintain such a network, consistent with the Financial Plan, will range from $20,750 to $83,150. These recurring costs include Mole maintenance, communications link fees, and Data Control Center maintenance costs. Network marketing costs will commence one year before the sale of the Owls and during the first such year will range from $32,280 to $146,170 (depending on the network size) and for subsequent years, 15% of sales.
The manufacture and assembly of the Owls would primarily involve the management of a production contract involving a solid-state electronic manufacturer. These unit costs, including distribution, as given in the Financial Plan, would amount to approximately $40 per unit and constitute "Owl production and distribution costs".
Company costs cover general operations at the VorTek headquarters. Such costs, as shown in the Financial Plan, over the first two years include certain nonrecurring engineering costs, amounting to $21,000, during year 1 and $102,850 during year 2 associated with development of the three components of the SDT network. During year 2 another $30,000 would be required for manufacturing set-up costs. In addition to these costs during year 1, an additional $8,000 will be required to purchase portable seismic equipment while during year 2 $42,000 would be needed to acquire six portable SDT instrument packages (Snails), plus special software from EAI. The total start-up non-network company costs would be $29,000 during year 1 and $174,850 during year 2.
As shown in the Financial Plan, total annual (recurring) costs for company operations would amount to $260,620 during year 1 and $707,959 during year 2. In addition to salary costs for company employees, described in subsection 7.3, these costs include associated overhead expenses including rent, telephone, utilities, repairs, maintenance, office equipment, supplies, insurance, payroll taxes, depreciation, employee benefits, annual company research expenses, and annual license fees for the SDT hardware and software.
The three employees initially employed by VorTek will be the Manager, Director of Development & Operations, and Administrative Assistant. After year 1 of the two-year start-up period a Design Engineer and a Marketing and Sales Director would be added. During the start-up period and each subsequent year the salaries of all employees are included in the annual (recurring) company management costs.
Detailed revenue projection data are included in the Financial Plan. The generation of revenue will commence after the installation of the first network and after 1) the sale of Owls, 2) the sale of subscriptions to receive the coded alarm signal, and 3) the sale of SDT data to the broadcast stations have commenced. Thus, no revenue will normally be generated during year 1 of the two-year start-up period.
For each network most revenue will be generated from 1) the sale of Owls, 2) the sale of annual subscriptions to receive the coded alarm signal, and 3) the sale of SDT data to the broadcast station(s). In order to generate a net positive income the total revenue must exceed not only the network costs but also the company costs and the Owl production and distribution costs.
As described in the Financial Plan, with a 10% market penetration, the network revenue for each city considered will exceed network initial (start-up) costs and maintenance costs, as well as Owl production and distribution costs, in its first year of operation after the network start year (NSY). As described in the Financial Plan after six years of business the total network income will range from $1,573,816 to $11,296,876.
The individual network income figures noted in the preceding paragraphs take into account both network costs and Owl production and distribution costs, but not company (maintenance and engineering) costs. The latter must be added to the other two costs for each network on a prorated basis. As noted in the cost projection, consistent with the Financial Plan, such costs would include $29,000 in initial (start-up) costs during year 1 and $174,850 during year 2, plus a minimum of $231,620 in year 1 and $533,109 during year 2 in annual (recurring) costs. In a six-year period (including the two years of start-up activities) with 10% market penetration the total non-network company costs would be a minimum of $5,798,145 including license fees which would be $1,547,657. The effects of these costs on net income will depend on the sequence of development of the networks.
Based on the sales projection given in subsection 7.1, the basic development plan calls for establishing the first network in Huntsville in year 1, followed by networks in Birmingham and Atlanta in year 2. In years 3 through 6, according to the first plan described in subsection 4.1.3, additional networks would be installed in the remaining 39 cities identified in Figure 4. Detailed financial figures for this plan are given in the Financial Plan. With 10% market penetration the total net income collected, with all initial costs recovered, collected after six years of business would be $27,291,395.
From a logistics standpoint the development plan is most attractive because installing the first network in the same city where company headquarters are located would minimize travel distance and time. Familiarity with the locality, as well as the existence of established business ties, would also result in a more cost-effective installation process. Because the network for Huntsville is smaller than the networks for Birmingham or Atlanta initial network costs during the network start year (NSY) would be smaller as compared to initial network start-up costs in the larger two cities.
7.4.3 Secondary Revenue Sources
In addition to the sale of Owls, annual subscriptions, and television revenue, at least three other potential sources of revenue can be identified.
First, as noted in subsection 3.3.4, both NOAA and FEMA, along with the Severe Storms Research Center of GTRI, have expressed an interest in the development and installation of a prototype SDT network. The cost estimate for this project would be approximately $358,000, to be provided by NOAA and/or FEMA. Such funds would significantly reduce the projected nonrecurring engineering costs associated with the Mole and DCC design identified in subsection 7.2. Most likely, the prototype network would be installed in Huntsville, Alabama. The revenue from this funding source as noted in the Financial Plan has been included in current financial projections.
Another source of secondary revenue would be the sale of the seismic signal, as collected at the Data Control Center to federal, state, or local agencies. The local NWS office or EMA office may be interested in obtaining the data as a means of confirming the presence of a tornado (on the ground) in conjunction with NEXRAD data. In exchange for appropriate compensation, VorTek would generally agree to provide such data to NWS and/or EMA offices. In current revenue projections such sale of the seismic data to any federal, state, or local agency has not been included.
7.5 INITIAL CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS
During the two-year start-up period initial capital will be raised in two steps. Capital for year 1 will be used to install the first network and will be kept to a minimum to reduce the risk to the investor. At the end of year 1, with the first network in place, additional capital will be raised to install two additional networks, as well as to complete the development of the Owls.
During year 1 of the start-up period, the initial (start-up) company costs of $29,000 plus one year of operating (recurring) costs (including license fees) of $231,620 must be covered by start-up capital. As indicated in Appendix F, this represents a total of $260,620 in company costs during year 1 of the start-up period. In addition, the start-up network cost of $66,515 for the Huntsville network must be covered. Thus, as shown in Financial Plan, the initial capital to cover year 1 of the start-up period would be $327,135. This is the minimum amount of capital to be initially raised.
During year 2 two additional networks will be installed, each with start-up costs. In addition to installation costs for these two networks, marketing expenses for all three networks would begin to be incurred. Likewise, the annual (recurring) cost for the first network will be incurred during this same time period. Such annual recurring network costs, (including marketing), combined with the two network start-up costs, would amount to $661,140. In addition, the company (non-network) operating costs of $707,959 (including license fees) for this same time period, will be incurred. Revenue, amounting to $458,000, derived from the sale of SDT data to television stations plus FEMA funding will partially offset these costs.
Based on the preceding discussion and consistent with the Financial Plan, the minimum amount of initial start-up costs over the first two years would be $1,238,234. If $327,135 is raised during year 1, the remaining amount to be raised during year 2 would be $911,099.
7.6 SOURCES OF FUNDING
Initially, the Company will be financed through private investors. With growth, however, when demand warrants it, the Company may require additional capital. In this situation one choice will be to seek increased levels of investment from the original investors. Other alternative sources of funding may also be considered including:
bank financing
SBA
venture capital
additional investors
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